NFL Preview- NFC

After looking at the AFC in the previous post, it's time to look at the NFC. A lot to unpack here so let's get into it. As with the AFC, I'm using OddsSharks over-under

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 wins- I'm pretty sure this number came out before Tony Romo's injury, but that doesn't matter to me. For those of us fortunate enough to have the ability to think about the Cowboys with some semblance of rational thought, this is one of the easiest calls in the league. Sure, they have some talent. But they've had talent for the last 20 years. Under

New York Giants: 8- Giants are one of the big stories of the offseason, spending huge money to shore up a lousy defense. Will it work? We know Damon Harrison is good. We know Janoris Jenkins can create turnovers, but he studied at the Prestigious Asante Samuel School of Creating Big Plays for Both Teams. We know Olivier Vernon had a great second half, but a pretty meh first three and a half years. We know they'll have a great passing attack, but what about the run? For me, all of this adds up to a 9 win team. In the NFC East, that's enough to cruise into the playoffs. Does that give them the magic to pull a Super Bowl out of their ass yet again? Probably. Over

Washington Redskins: 7.5- First off, I'd like to point out how brave it is to use this team's name. It takes a lot of courage to type out Washington, but I'd like to think I'm making a difference. Please, I don't want attention, I just like taking solace in the fact that I'm willing to make a stand. As for the team, I don't know, I don't see it this season. They'll be able to pass, but can they do much else? Methinks not really. Under

Philadelphia Eagles: 7- I know the NFC East's idiot fans always bet on them and inflate the lines and projected win totals, but man this is easy. Not that I'm complaining. This team won't be very good. They won't be terrible, especially on defense, but they won't win more than 6 games. Under

NFC North

Green Bay Packers: 10.5- Getting Jordy Nelson back is bad news for the rest of the league. I haven't fully crunched the numbers, but I'm pretty sure Aaron Rodgers' QBR is a perfect 100 when Nelson is in the lineup. The defense is getting better each season, thanks to a stable of veteran stars and emerging young talent. They might finish the regular season with the league's best record. Over

Minnesota Vikings: 9.5- Another total that came out before a team lost their starting quarterback, this one is a little murkier. For starters, the Vikings roster is clearly better than the Cowboys', and is better than most of the NFC. The defense has a chance to be really good this year. They still have Adrian Peterson, who may be an android, and a couple good receiving threats. If Bradford plays the same role as Bridgewater did last season, I like their chances this season. Over

Chicago Bears: 7.5- The Bears felt a lot worse than they actually were last season. The defense was hot garbage, but they added two excellent middle linebackers in Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman, and getting Kevin White back is like adding another first round pick. There's still a lot of holes in this roster though. I think they'll mostly tread water this season. Under

Detroit Lions: 7.5- Somewhere amongst the infinite variances of the universe, there's a world where the Lions are perennial contenders and multi-time Super Bowl winners. We do not live in this reality. Under

NFC South

Carolina Panthers: 10.5- The Panthers are a trendy pick to regress, simply because you don't win 15 games back-to-back seasons. I think they'll drop a few wins due to karmic retribution for all that dabbing. I mean, what kind of impact did that have on young minds? A good team enjoying themselves? For shame, Panthers, for shame. They won't win 15 games, but they'll still be pretty darn good. Over

Atlanta Falcons: 7.5- Hey, they've got Julio Jones! But not much else! No, the offense has some good pieces, but the ceiling feels like it's just above average. The defense has less good pieces than the offense, and the ceiling feels like it's just below average. That's all this team can really be. Average. Under

New Orleans Saints: 7- A little good news, bad news for the Saints. Bad news: they probably had the worst defense of all time last season. Good news: it can't really get worse! As long as Drew Brees suits up, they'll have a great offense and be tough to beat at home. The defense has to be at least slightly better. I have a good feeling about this team this year. I think they'll be in the division race until the end. Over

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7- A seemingly eternal pick to take a leap into relevancy, this season feels like it might happen. The swashbuckling offense should be explosive despite offensive line troubles, and the defense has some really good run defenders. They might get plundered through the air, though, since their secondary is about as worthless as a sail with holes in it. Actually, I'd take the sail over whoever else they have at corner besides rookie Vernon Hargreaves. Time will tell if this team finds it's buried treasure or gets lost at sea. That's a few too many pirate jokes for my taste. Over

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks: 10.5- When they're rolling, the only team that scares me more than Seattle is the Giants, and that's only because I have severe Super Bowl-related PTSD. Every year it seems like they lose some key guy on defense, only to replace him with some other new star from out of nowhere. Add to that the offense was just as good as the defense last season, and this team could cause some serious damage. Plus, as long as they have Russell Wilson's hookup for magic nanobubbles, no one will get injured. Over

Arizona Cardinals: 10- I'm all in on this Cardinals team. I don't know if it's because of All or Nothing on Amazon recently or not, but I think they're the best team in the NFC. They have no weaknesses. As long as Carson Palmer doesn't lose his mind like he did in the playoffs they'll be a dominant force. Count me in for both Seahawks-Cardinals games. Over

Los Angeles Rams: 7.5- I feel like Hard Knocks always boosts a team's total at least one game. The defensive line is certainly playoff-quality. As is the running back. And the punter. But, it's Jeff Fisher. How far from .500 is he willing to deviate? Not particularly, I'm guessing. This team is gonna struggle to score, especially in this division. Congrats on getting football back, L.A. Here's a full season of Case Keenum! Under

San Francisco 49ers: 5.5- Fellow Chip Kelly believers, stand up! Too bad this roster stinks. They don't stand out in any area, unless you count standing out for being bad. Tough for any QB to stand tall in the pocket behind arguably a bottom-five offensive line. The defense isn't all that bad, but that isn't much of a leg to stand on. Tough to see them taking many knees in victory formation this year. Under

Bonus NFC Championship Game Preview

Cardinals beat Seahawks

Special Bonus Super Bowl Pick

Patriots beat Cardinals

End of season award predictions

MVP: Aaron Rodgers (Dark horse pick: Ryan Tannehill Derek Carr)
DPOY: Aaron Donald (Dark horse pick: Jamie Collins)
OROY: Aaron Burbrige Ezekiel Elliot (Dark horse pick: Derrick Henry)
DPOY: Vernon Hargreaves (Dark horse pick: Myles Jack)

NFL Preview- AFC

So the NFL season if officially kicking off on Thursday night after what's seemed like an eternal offseason. Naturally, I couldn't be more excited. The only logical thing to do is to do an in-depth, team by team preview, giving my predictions for the postseason and individual awards. Well, I'm a little behind this year, so I'll just give a mini-take on each team and look at their over-under win total using OddsSharks numbers. Today, we'll tackle the thinking man's conference, the AFC.


AFC East

New England Patriots: 10.5 wins- Starting with my beloved Patriots, this is practically stealing. Pats have won at least eleven games 12 of the last 15 years, AKA Tom Brady's career as a starter. Sure, he's missing the first four games due to a witch hunt suspension, but they'll start at worst 2-2, even if Jimmy Garappolo stinks. This defense is legit and everyone who contributed positively to the offense is back. Over

New York Jets: 8- In what is surely a suicidal move, I'm optimistic about the Jets this season. They have a chance to be the second best all-around team in the AFC. They actually have a good offense and a good defense, which seems like a foreign concept for many AFC teams. However, it's the Jets, so any time you think they're going to be good, trust the opposite to happen. But still, it's almost impossible they don't get 9 wins. Over

Buffalo Bills: 8- Bills are another team with some really good players on both sides of the ball. The Ryan boys are bringing sexy back to the sidelines, and Tyrod, Shady, and Sammy Watkins could light up the scoreboard. However, it's the Bills, so any time you think they're going to be good, trust the opposite to happen. Under

Miami Dolphins: 7- Seven wins seems about right for the Fish. They're starting the season off on the wrong foot, since this year their unprecedented streak of off-season Super Bowls was finally broken. Tannehill is garbage, most of the defense is garbage, most of the offense is garbage, the guys they brought in are all either past their prime or stink. Besides the like, five reliably good players and a new coach, there's just not much to be excited about here for the people of Miami. Not that they'll notice. Under

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers: 10.5- Vegas is really high on the Steelers, and for good reason. The offense is insane. They have the best receiver in the league and arguably the best running back in the league, along with Big Ben. If everyone stays healthy, they'll score on everybody. Only thing is, everyone is going to score on them, too. Their defense is very leaky, despite how many high draft picks they've invested in bringing back the Steel Curtain. This is a really talented team, and one I wouldn't want to face in the playoffs, but they're too one-dimensional to win more than ten games IMO. Under

Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5- The Bengals have choked in big games more often than I misspell Cincinnati, which happens every time I try write it. No matter who is on the roster, they shrink in primetime. Their schedule is brutal this year, too. Still, they have eleven games at either 1 or 4 o'clock, and they play the Texans in primetime, possibly the only team that's smaller mentally. They'll somehow win ten or eleven games. Over

Baltimore Ravens: 8- Ravens were really unlucky with injuries last year, most notably to Steve Smith, Sr. and the league best quarterback, Joe Flacco. Their offense is good, but the defense was surprisingly shaky last year. Not sure if it's really going to improve this year, either. Eight wins seems spot on, and I want to say push, but that's not what we're about here. I hate the Ravens, so I'll say Under.

Cleveland Browns: 5- The Browns are kind of an interesting team. If RGIII can recapture some semblance of quality quarterback play, they have some good weapons on the outside. When Josh Gordon comes back, he, rookie Corey Coleman, and receiver experiment Terrelle Pryor could create an exciting, high flying offense. However, it's the Browns, so any time you think they'll be good, trust the opposite to happen. Under

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts: 9.5- Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems crazy to me. Sure Luck was hurt last season, but they weren't good last year. The offensive and defensive lines STINK, especially since defensive end Henry Anderson, who was surprisingly good last year as a rookie, is out for an undetermined amount of time. It'll be Andrew Luck or bust this year, which works when he's carving up the Jags and Titans, but doesn't work when he throws a million interceptions against good teams. I could be wrong (never happened before) but I don't see it this year. Under

Houston Texans: 8.5- I like this Texans team. They have a great defense lead by everyone's favorite completely genuine great guy J.J. Watt. Hey, did you know that J.J. has a grandma and a great-grandma? I just found out the other day because he's never brought it up before. Anyway, they have a lot more than the dominant Watt on D, and should finish very high in league rankings on that side of the ball. On offense, they brought in some good pieces, but I'm not sold on Brock Osweiler. To be honest, I'm not sure anyone outside of Houston is, but it's who they went with. I think he'll limit them some, but Lamar Miller and Deandre Hopkins can win games no matter who's at QB. Over

Jacksonville Jaguars: 7.5- Every year, there's one or two it-teams that everyone thinks will take a big step forward and take the league by storm. The Jags certainly qualify this year. They made some big time acquisitions with Tashaun Gipson and Malik Jackson. They essentially have three exciting new first round picks on defense, with Jalen Ramsey, Dante Fowler, last year's first rounder who blew his knee out in camp, and Myles Jack, who would have been a top-10 pick if he didn't have injury issues. Add in the explosive trio of Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, and Allen Hurns, and the possibilities seem limitless. But, this seems all a little bit too much, too fast. These get-rich-quick moves hardly ever work. There's still a lot of questions to be answered, and many of the offense's stats came late when they were already losing. Maybe ask me about them next year. Under

Tennessee Titans: 5.5- The Titans make me sad. When you have Marcus Mariota, who literally couldn't be stopped at Oregon in the spread, why must you insist on going to a boring, run first, second, and last I-formation attack. This isn't 1920 anymore. Grow up, Mike Mularky. Under out of spite.

AFC West

Denver Broncos: 9.5- I spent enough time doubting this team last year to learn my lesson. Despite the standard post-Super Bowl exodus of free agents, this defense is still crazy good. Losing Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan hurts, but it seemed like even their backups on D were freak athletes. On offense, they'll be pretty much the same as last year. Peyton was the definition of replacement-level last year, and, barring an unforeseen star turn, that's what they'll be getting with Trevor Siemian. They'll be fine, even in a pretty tough division. Over (FWIW, I love Denver +3 on Thursday night)

Kansas City Chiefs: 9.5- The Chiefs have two of their stars, Jamal Charles and Justin Houston, fighting lingering injuries to start the season, but it's pretty much the same team as last year. Now, I doubt they'll win 10 games in a row again this season, but they'll be good again. That's kind of all I got on them. Alex Smith is to quarterbacking what paint drying is to exciting activities. They have a good pass rush, so that can be fun. They'll be good, but I'm not dropping everything to watch them every week. Over

Oakland Raiders: 8.5- The Raiders are the other trendy pick in the AFC, and I think there's more merit to them. My man Derek Carr started last season like a house on fire, and ended it like a typical Raiders QB. But, they have the best O-Line in the AFC and have an up-and-coming star in Amari Cooper. The defense could be scary this season with Khalil Mack and what should be a vastly improved secondary. However, it's the Raiders, and any time you think they'll be good... actually, you know what? I think the Raiders will be good this year. Over

San Diego Chargers: 7- I don't think I can say this loud enough: CHARGERS STINK. Easiest call on the board. Under

Bonus AFC Title Game prediction

Patriots beat Broncos- What can I say? I'm biased.

Is Josh Rosen the greatest Jewish athlete of all time?

Josh Rosen, UCLA's sophomore quarterback, is very good. When he leaves school for the NFL after next season or in 2019, he will be taken in the first round, possibly even first overall. He's also Jewish. Sure, he likes to make a big deal about how socially progressive he is and that he's an atheist, but his dad is Jewish. So, he's Jewish. Does being a future number one pick in the NFL make him the greatest Chosen athlete of all time? Let's look at some of his compatriots and see.

Mose Solomon- Nicknamed "the Rabbi of Swat," Solomon finished his legendary career with a total of three hits in two games. That's a lot for anyone to live up to. Is Rosen mentally strong enough to carry the burden? Sure he's faster, stronger, and an all-around much better athlete than this titan of baseball's dead ball era, but the truly great ones never feel the weight of expectation. Given his people's history with neurosis, it could be a big ask.

Dolph Schayes- My man Dolph played in a tough era to be a Jewish guy named Adolph, and he still managed to make the Basketball Hall of Fame. A true artist with the set-shot, read about Dolph and you'll continually see adjectives like "smart," "wily," "low to the ground," and "plodding." What's Rosen's 40 time? 5.03? Would he even make a 1950s NBA roster? Beginning to think not.

Craig Breslow- Craig Breslow stinks. The 12 Tribes have had plenty of success in the Big Leagues, but Craig did his best to ruin that legacy in 2014. Josh ranks higher on the Jewish Athlete Big Board.

Amar'e Stoudemire- Now I know what you're thinking. "Amar'e was one of the most athletic big men in NBA history. A true physical specimen and perennial all-star. How can a skinny white boy match this modern-day Samson?" Well, Amar'e didn't decide he was Jewish until 2010. So, the Jews only get to claim his post-Suns career. In other words, he kept getting injured and kept getting a ton of money. I'll spare you the easy joke. For Rosen to eclipse Jewish Amar'e, all he needs to do is sign a massive contract and fail to live up to expectations. As long as he gets drafted to the NFC East, that seems like a done deal.

George Worth- I don't know a lot of things for certain in this life. The sun will rise in the East. The Patriots will make the AFC Championship Game. And if you stepped into the fencing ring with George Worth, you weren't leaving a winner. Dude won a bronze medal in the 1948 Olympics in the team sabre event. Ask any true Olympic fan if team sabre or the 100 meter dash is a more prestigious event and you're in for a good debate. It's unfair to put Rosen in the same sentence as Worth, but I just wanted to show what kind of competition he'll be facing. Becoming the greatest Jewish athlete of all time is no lazy sabbath day.

After going through the annals of Jewish sporting history, I've determined Josh Rosen has a pretty good shot at being one of the best of all time. In terms of modern quarterbacks, his best competition is Sage Rosenfels, so I think he's got that wrapped up. In the end, though, it doesn't really matter. He'll never be better than Koufax.

I'm Back

The national nightmare is finally over.... I'm posting another blog. You can breathe again. It's been a long couple of months. I've been reshaping the book I already wrote, started at least three other projects, eaten my weight in pizza, and watched a ton of porn. Mostly just watched porn. But all that matters now is that I'm back. So rest easy, fair traveler, for I am here to guide you through the darkness.

I figured my first post had to be about college football, which kicks off in earnest today. I'm a little late to have a huge team by team preview, so I'll start off slow and give my Heisman and National Title picks. Now, those of you who remember my MLB predictions (I'm pretty sure I'm the only one who read it) know that my baseball predictions haven't really gone to plan. But, a good prognosticator looks not to the past, but to the future. Shooters keep shooting, so let's go.

Heisman Trophy:

Using the last few years as a guide, I can safely say that Deshaun Watson, Clemson's dynamic QB and huge Heisman favorite, will not win the award. The preseason favorite pretty much never wins anymore, since the extreme expectations demand perfection every game. Even if he matches last season's stats, he'll have one game that's a little tough, be it an underdog that makes life difficult out of nowhere or someone like Florida State taking control of the ACC. The odds being in his favor means that the odds are not in his favor.

The basic formula for the last ten or so years is best QB from a top 5 team. Since Watson is ineligible due to being preseason favorite, I'm taking another dynamic QB who leads, I think, one of the three best teams in America

Pick: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

Now, as I'm writing this Oklahoma is predictably losing to Houston. It doesn't phase me, since 1. Oklahoma will always lose at least one big game a year, and 2. I picked Houston to win this game (no one can confirm this, but it's true). This OU team is too stacked for him not to put up huge numbers. Really, his campaign hinges on the game against Ohio State on September 17. If they win and he plays well, I think he's golden if they win the Big 12. If they lose and fall to 1-2, then it's over, and the Heisman will instead go to this guy.

2. Leonard Fournette, LSU

He's the best player (at least, best player that only plays on offense) in the country, and he leads, in my opinion, the best team in the country. He's a beast, no other way to put it. If LSU beats Alabama and makes the playoff and Oklahoma doesn't, look for Fournette to take the trophy.

3. Greg Ward, Jr., Houston

Just wanted to mention him here. Houston is a legit team, and I think they'll make the playoff (barring, of course, another slip up against my Uconn Huskies. Since we beat Houston last year, and they beat Oklahoma, and Oklahoma was a playoff team last year, does that mean we should make the playoff this year? Makes you think). I hate that smaller conferences never get any Heisman appreciation. If it was up to me, the trophy would have been officially retired after Colt Brennan's 2006 season. Houston will be good this year, and so will Greg Ward, Jr.

Wild Card Pick. Jabrill Peppers, Michigan

Defensive Player who definitely won't win. Myles Garrett, Texas A&M

Playoff Predictions

LSU vs. Houston

Oklahoma vs. Clemson

Title Game: LSU beats Clemson