Celtics Trade Deadline Preview

I've been courageously battling the flu this week, but I had to get this up today. Now, this may become obsolete very quickly. It may even become obsolete as I'm writing. But still, I had to give my take on the big rumors surrounding the Celtics for today's trade deadline. I love trade deadline day in virtually every sport because it's the best time for crazy and foolish moves to take place. Teams like the Kings who, for some unknown reason, still think they're like the 2 seed in the West, will make stupid, win-now desperation moves that we all can mock. Or smart teams, like the 2008 Lakers (who had an assist from the hapless Grizzlies) will make moves that propel them from middle of the pack teams to legit contenders. The Celtics are in an interesting spot this year. They have a young, overachieving team that plays an entertaining style and goes all out for their coach. They have a million first round picks over the next few seasons that, given the Nets' current state, could produce some great talent. They're also the 3-seed in the East and have a legit chance of making the conference finals, but are one big-time player away from being able to push Cleveland to the brink. So, what to do? Let's look at the three names that have come up as possible trade targets and see if it would be a good idea to acquire them.

Dwight Howard

This right here is my worst nightmare. I've never made any bones about it: I hate Dwight Howard more passionately than I've ever hated anyone. He's a coach killing, team ditching, crybaby, soft as baby poo mental midget with the fakest personality in Houston (and that's saying something, considering he shares a city with J.J. Watt) and a horrible attitude. And now he's getting kicked out of games left and right. And, on top of all that, he sucks. He can't do anything on offense besides dunk and mope around when he doesn't get the ball. He's awful from the line and has negative post moves. As in, he has such little ability on the block that it creates a small black hole that sucks out any aesthetically pleasing or effective basketball any time he tries one of his disgusting running hooks that invariably brick off the side of the rim. He's garbage. And once you factor in that I, a six foot, overweight white guy, am positive that I could bully him, the most physically imposing playing in the NBA, that's a bad thing. He's never going to win anything and I can't imagine a greater joy than watching him fake laugh through his Hall of Fame speech while he's clearly dead on the inside. Don't trade for Dwight.


Kevin Love

It's one thing to get a guy surrounded by controversy. Someone who's on-the-court antics or press conferences cause drama with the media. Sometimes, it's good to get someone like that, someone who might be a little crazy (like DeMarcus Cousins. Man, he would look good in green). It's another thing entirely when the controversy is about Instagram pictures. Unsurprisingly, being around Lebron has sapped Kevin Love of any redeeming qualities and has turned him into a mentally soft, one dimensional player with the attitude of a teenage girl. He's completely abandoned his inside game to appease overlord James, and I don't really see him going back. There's no pressure if you just huck 3s, and it seems like the only white Hooper (wonder what happened there?) likes it when there's no pressure. He's actually got the best defensive rating of his career this season, but he's miles away from being an interior stopper. Bottom line is he's just a stats guy. He'll get you double doubles, but he won't get you wins. And he's got stupid looking hair. Don't trade for Love.


Al Horford

Now we have a palatable trade. I love Al Horford. Despite being a four time all star, he's still criminally underrated. I like to think of him as the East's version of Marc Gasol. His final stat line might not wow you, but if you watch him all game, or dive deep into the stats, his impact is obvious. He's a plus defender (his opponents field goal percentage at the rim is less than one percentage point higher than Hassan Whiteside), he's a crafty passer, and a great shooter. His catch at shoot percentage this season is identical to Dirk's. He's a better rebounder than his total would imply: he grabs a higher percentage of his rebounding opportunities than Zaza Pachulia, Tristan Thompson, or teammate Paul Millsap. He's a great player that instantly makes any team legitimate. However, he's a free agent after this season. And he's not a dominant, one-on-one scorer, which the Celtics need. So is it wise to trade for him? Yes, as long as the price isn't too high. If they can get him and keep the Nets first rounder this year (not sure how likely that is) then I'd say do it. If they'd have to give up a lot, then maybe wait and see if they can tempt him in free agency. But that's always better in theory than practice. I think the safest bet would be to trade for him, as long as he agreed to an extension. Proven, top level players, even ones as unexciting as Horford, are better than the glittery unknown of a top draft pick. As long as they don't give up the farm, trade for Al and see just how far this team can go.

Tom Cavanagh is About to Dominate the Celebrity All Star Game

This is super last minute, but I've never been more sure of anything than this: Tom Cavanagh is about to demolish everyone in the Celebrity All Star Game. If he doesn't score 25 I'll be shocked. What James Denton is to the Celebrity Softball Game, Tom Cavanagh is about to become for the Celebrity Basketball game.

Mid Season NBA Awards

This weekend is one of my favorite weekends of the year, NBA All Star Weekend. When I was younger, All Star Weekend was like Christmas and my birthday combined then multiplied by a snow day. I don't think me and my friend would ever actually sleep during it; we'd just stay up watching the events then playing a ton of NBA Live 06 (for my money the most fun basketball video game ever. Definitely the best soundtrack).

Anyway, the All Star break is a good opportunity to look back at the season so far and give out some awards. For some unknown reason, I don't have a real vote when it comes to these awards, so this post will have to do.


MVP:

Surprise! I'm picking Steph Curry as MVP. Not that that's going out on a limb or anything. He's the only choice. He's been better this season than last season. His team is on pace to break the wins record. They're going to win their second straight championship. I was too young to appreciate MJ in his prime (I was born in 1992), so, for my money, he's the most unstoppable offensive force I've ever seen. LeBron was never a great shooter, so, theoretically, you could slow him down a little bit by sagging way off. With Steph, you just have to hope he misses.

If it weren't for Steph, there would still be a clear-cut MVP. And that would be Russell Westbrook. He's been playing out of his mind all season. He's number two in PER (behind Steph), second in real plus minus, and averaging an absurd 24/10/7.6 while matching his career high in field goal percentage and leading the league in steals. When Kevin Durant, who's been great once again this season, isn't the best player on your team, that's saying something.

It's been a weirdly quiet season on the court for Lebron. His biggest highlights this season are succeeding in his long and hard fought crusade to finally vanquish his nemesis David Blatt and including Kevin Love in an Instagram post. Still, though, he is still Lebron. He's lead the Cavs to the best record in the East and is still efficient on offense. He doesn't really try on defense anymore, but that's okay though, since now Tyronn Lue is going to hold him accountable. Small sidetrack here, I'm clearly not a Lebron guy and I don't understand the people that are. Like is it charming that he's got the biggest ego in the league (maybe of all time) but preaches over and over again that he's super unselfish? Is it endearing when he makes excuse after excuse for when he invariably fails to win a title for the God forsaken wasteland that is Cleveland, Ohio, many of those excuses coming before he actually loses? Is the complete lack of self awareness (like when he said he never flops or has never disrespected a coach) a quality you enjoy? I just don't get how anyone likes this guy. He sucks. Now that I'm mad, I'm lowering him in my ranking. He was going to be third, but now he's fourth. All he does is create super teams, but I can already hear him crying about how it would be unfair if Kevin Durant joined the Warriors. Screw him.

If you had told me that Kawhi Leonard would be a top five player in the NBA when we (by we I mean UConn) beat him in the 2011 NCAA Tournament, I would have said you were crazy. In college he was a big rebounder and decent scorer. I never imagined he'd become a defensive god. His offense just keeps evolving, to the point that he's the go-to man for the second best team in the NBA, a team that has LaMarcus Aldridge and Tony Parker, both of whom are still just as efficient as ever on offense. He's been amazing this season, and I don't really see his improvement stopping any time soon.

To round out the top 5, Draymond Green is another guy who, if you asked me about him when he was still in college, top 5 in the MVP voting would not have even entered my mind. He's the emotional leader of the best team ever (that's right, I said it), and racks up triple doubles like nobody's business. He's a versatile defensive stopper, immovable in the post and agile enough to guard perimeter players. His number three ranking in real plus minus says all you need to know. The guy just gets it done at an elite level every night.

MVP Ballot:
1. Steph Curry
2. Russell Westbrook
3. Kawhi Leonard
4. Lebon James
5. Markieff Morris Draymond Green


Defensive Player of the Year:

For the second straight season, Kawhi Leonard should win best defensive player. He's the best perimeter defender in the NBA, and is the most important piece of the NBA's best defense. Unless you're an elite ball handler, if you dribble near him it's getting stolen. He's going to set a new career high in blocks this season. He's got a top 3 defensive rating in the league. He's the clear winner.

Hassan Whiteside has been a shot blocking machine this season, but he hasn't been as dominant as people would like to believe. Opponents are shooting 47.9% at the rim against him this season. To put it in perspective, Draymond Green is holding opponents to 42.9%. Amare Stoudemire(!) is at 48.1%. So yeah, he gets a lot of blocks. He's also not bringing the center position back.

Somehow, someway, Tim Duncan is still second in the league in defensive rating. It's amazing. He's probably the smartest defensive player ever. He's got a telepathic connection with ever teammate on the floor and always gets himself and others into perfect position. He gets penalized, though, for literally never playing anymore.

DPOY Ballot:

1. Kawhi Leonard

2. Draymond Green

3. Hassan Whiteside

4. Tim Duncan

5. Paul Millsap

Rookie of the Year:

Technically, this is a two-horse race, but if it weren't for the New York City Hype Machine, this award would be the easier to call than MVP. Karl-Anthony Towns has been amazing this season. He has a positive real plus minus on a terrible Timberwolves team, which is an accomplishment by itself. He leads all rookies in PER, scoring, rebounds, and double doubles (he's fifth among all players), and ranks in the top five for rookies in field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and blocks. Oh, and he shoots 37.5% from 3. This guy is going to be a monster.

Yes, Kristaps has some awesome highlights and is a very good shot blocker. He also just doesn't show up half the time, shoots like 10% from the floor, and is allergic to the paint. If you legitimately think he's rookie of the year, then I have some Joba Chamberlain stock I can sell you.

ROY Ballot:

1. KAT

2. Kristaps

3. Jah Okafor

4. Nikola Jokic

5. Myles Turner

Most Improved Player:

This award isn't very deep this season, so I think I like C.J. McCollum here. His scoring is way, way up, and his percentages remain mostly the same despite the dramatic increase in minutes and usage. He's a crafty scorer, that much we knew coming out of college. He just needed to get fully healthy and get consistent minutes. Him and Damian Lillard combine to form one of the most dynamic backcourts in the NBA, and are the driving force behind Portland's surprising season.

Andre Drummond has improved his defensive rating and scoring and is owning the glass, but man, that free throw shooting. I can't tell how serious people are when they say Steph Curry should be Most Improved, but this isn't an award for reigning MVPs. He should still be on the ballot this season, though. I'll give Jae Crowder some love here. At times he's been the Celtics most important player. He's a great glue guy, picking up the slack on offense whenever needed, and guarding the top wing on defense.

Most Improved Ballot:

1. C.J. McCollum

2. Will Barton

3. Andre Dummond

4. Jae Crowder

5. Steph Curry

Most Unimproved- Markieff Morris

Sixth Man:

I'm going Will Barton, who could also win Most Improved. This award usually just goes to the top bench scorer, but Ryan Anderson's defense is just so bad. Barton has helped the Nuggets be less bad than people thought, all while putting up great numbers. His three point shooting really stands out, since it's a full 10% better than last season. He's like a perfect version of Corey Brewer. Coming in off the bench with his hair on fire, creating chaos all over the court and living in transition.

Victor Oladipo thrived coming off the bench, but he's started too many games to qualify. Ryan Anderson can't be completely ignored, he is the leading bench scorer after all. Andre Iguodala is another top candidate, leading the deadly second unit in Golden State while perfecting the corner 3. Manu Ginobili just won't die, and he should get some consideration.

Sixth Man Ballot:

1. Will Barton

2. Andre Iguodala

3. Ryan Anderson

4. Manu Ginobili

5. Victor Oladipo

Coach of the Year:

With apologies to Tyronn Lue, Brad Stevens has become the best coach in the East and a top 2 coach in the NBA. This Celtics team should not be number 3 in the East, but there they are. Stevens is a genius who gets the most out of every player he coaches. Celtics are number 3 in defensive efficiency and number 9 in offensive efficiency. Six teams are top ten in both (Golden State, San Antonio, Clippers, Toronto, Cleveland, Boston) and the Celtics have the least talented roster out of any of those teams. Sure the Celtics are deep, but deep with role players. Stevens has maximized the talent he has.

Coach Pop should always finish top two in this award. The Belichick of the NBA, Popovich has been the best coach in the league for years. That won't change until he retires. Luke Walton won't get much consideration, since he technically wasn't the coach and has the most stacked roster. Don't cry too much for Luke, though. He's going to become a very rich man this offseason. David Blatt showed once again this year why he's got a reputation as an x's and o's guru, as well as a master motivator.

Coach of the Year Ballot:

1. Brad Stevens

2. Gregg Popovich

3. David Blatt

4. Rick Carlisle

5. Tyronn Lue

ALL NBA TEAMS:

1st Team:

G Steph Curry

G Russell Westbrook

F Lebron James

F Kawhi Leonard

C DeMarcus Cousins

2nd Team:

G Kyle Lowry

G James Harden

F Kevin Durant

F Draymond Green

C Andre Drummond

3rd Team:

G Chris Paul

G Jimmy Butler

F LaMarcus Aldridge

F Paul Millsap

C DeAndre Jordan

1st Team All Defense:

G Tony Allen

G Danny Green

F Kawhi Leonard

F Draymond Green

C Hassan Whiteside

2nd Team All Defense:

G Russell Westbrook

G Thabo Sefalosha

F Paul Millsap

F Serge Ibaka

C Tim Duncan

What the Hell is Going on in Sacramento?

I've always wondered if the people that lived through true incompetence knew it would be remembered. Like how did people think Neville Chamberlain or Andre Maginot would be remembered? Or Caligula of Rome? Or the inventor of New Coke? I never thought I would have to wonder the same thing about someone from my time, but I'm starting to think Vivek Ranadive will be remembered until the end of time as one of the worst leaders in the history of human civilization.

The list of Kings transactions since he became owner reads like a Stephen King horror novel. Baffling front office and coaching hires. Bad drafting. Stupid roster moves that make no sense whatsoever and show no level of understanding of the talent on his team and where they stand in the league. All while putting a crazy amount of pressure on his team to win now and having a public persona of the kindly old billionaire that doesn't have a clue. And now this George Karl saga. After being reportedly out the door, the Kings dramatically announced that he would not, in fact, be fired. For now. It's Favreian level decision making.

Vivek is clearly a smart guy. You don't become a tech magnate by accident. But, as an NBA owner, he's quickly becoming the worst to ever do it. My rule of thumb when it comes to pro sports is that if I truly, genuinely believe I am better than you at something, you're all time bad at it. Well, I know for a fact I'd be a better owner than Vivek, just like I'm a better free throw shooter than Andre Drummond, a better fielder than Hanley Ramirez, and have better hands than Ted Ginn.

There's a select number of remember-where-you-were moments in history. I think we're headed there with Vivek. He's going to do something so dumb, so incomprehensibly stupid that the world will momentarily stop spinning. I'd like to think that you can tell when someone is going to be remembered throughout history, whether good or bad. I'm pretty sure Vivek is going to be remembered. Maybe that's all he ever wanted.

National League 2016 Team Forecasts

We're back to look forward to the National League. If you missed my take on the AL, then I seriously question your judgement. After all, why turn down free predictions from Baseballdamus? (I just made that nickname for myself and I'm not sure if it'll stick). As with the American League, these team previews come with minimal research, knee jerk reactions, and iron-clad prognostications.


NL East

New York Mets- The Mets are coming into this season with a lot of optimism. A world series run, resigning Yoenis Cespedes (at least for now), and still having a stacked starting rotation will do that. Steven Matz will be a good bet for rookie of the year, and both Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom will make a run at the Cy Young. The Mets turnaround of offense (going from second to last in the NL in runs before the All-Star game to leading the NL in runs after it) was remarkable, but I'm not sure it will be sustainable. Sure, they won't be the weak and anemic team they were for most of the first half, but I expect them to finish middle of the pack in most offensive numbers. The only major change for the Mets is swapping postseason god Daniel Murphy for Neil Walker. This will probably wind up a wash. Last postseason aside, Murphy pretty much is what he is at this point: a .280-.290 hitter without much power or speed and a bad fielder. Walker is somehow a worse fielder, hits for a slightly lower average, and adds more consistent power. Overall, this team is in great shape for this season. The defense is average, and with this rotation, that's plenty good enough. The key will be how close the offense can get to repeating last second half. I think they'll get close enough to take the division.

 Washington Nationals- Last year's "it" team failed to live up to the hype, despite an unreal season from Bryce Harper and a great season from import Max Scherzer. It's almost impressive that this team finished so low in the team OPS+ rankings when they had one of the highest OPS+ numbers of the modern era in the middle of their lineup. The pitching was still good, ranking quite highly in ERA+ and FIP, all while having a shitty defense behind it. The team has plenty of talent, and one would expect them to have a better season this go around. Anthony Rendon will play more than 80 games, Trea Turner is another rookie of the year frontrunner, and Bryce is still only 23. This should be one a much improved team. Post-hype teams often perform well once the pressure has been turned off. Not saying this team will win the World Series or anything, but they should make a serious push at a wild card spot. Plus, they fired Matt Williams. That's a big addition by subtraction. So, who will they get to replace him? A young, smart manager who knows how to mix the analytical side with the traditional side? Someone who knows in-game situations and can perfectly manage a bullpen over a 162 game season? Wait, what's that? They already got someone? Who? Dusty Baker? Oh. I take everything back. This team is going nowhere.

Miami Marlins- Not to be the turd in the punchbowl, but last year was the third time in the last four seasons that Giancarlo Stanton missed 39 games or more. He's coming dangerously close to becoming an injury liability. Still, as long as he's on the field, he's going to mash. Same with Jose Fernandez on the mound. This could be another team that benefits from being in a post-hype season. Hard to remember now, but Miami was a trendy pick to make the playoffs last year. Christian Yelich had flashes last year, but never really put it together after a promising 2014, and Marcel Ozuna was the newest member of the witness protection program. They were good on defense, though, which is just about the only area they were above average. This team has some pieces, but just not a full deck.

Atlanta Braves- Hey remember Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz? Great times. Listen, I know a lot more random athletes than just about anyone, and when I've only heard of about five players on the roster, that's a bad thing. This team is in full rebuild mode, and are in for a rude awakening when people still don't show up to their new stadium in a few years. At least they got Dansby Swanson.

Philadelphia Phillies- This team is still gonna suck, but it won't be as depressing as previous years. They've got a lot of good, young, athletic players that should get a lot of playing time. They might even get out of the bottom five of like, at least one major team stat! Trust the process! Side note, Citizen's Bank Park is one of my favorite stadiums in the league. I love small parks, and it doesn't get smaller or prettier than Philadelphia. I've been a couple times, and I even thought the food was good. Then again, I'll pretty much eat anything that doesn't move the Geiger Counter and be happy about it, so it might just be average.

Division Outlook: This is probably the most top-heavy division in the majors. A timeline exists where the Nationals win the division this year, but I don't think we're living in it. The Mets are just too strong. Now, the Mets are still the Mets, so a collapse is always possible, but with their pitching I don't see it. The Nats could easily hang around the Wild Card chase, but I'm not sure if they'll be able to break through.

Winner: Mets


NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals- In St. Louis, they're better than you, and they know it. Seriously, is anyone classier than the Cardinals or their fans? Just ask anyone who left the team or crossed them on Twitter! There's no better indicator of class than constantly reminding other people how classy you are, right Ladanian Tomlinson? Cardinals fans should thank their lucky stars for Royals fans and Seahawks fans, because they keep Cardinals fans from being far and away the most annoying people on the planet. On the field, once again this team is throwing out a lineup of relative no names. But, once again, don't confuse lack of star power with lack of talent. This team will be there at the end, as usual. However, the NL is really good this year. Realistically, they'll need 95 or more wins to make the playoffs. Can they do it? Yes, they can do it. Will they? I'm not totally convinced. At some point, the black magic has to run out. They aren't a great hitting team, and are out of the top 10 defensively. That can catch up to you eventually. Now, count the Cardinals out at your own risk, but I don't think they're as big of a lock to make the playoffs as they usually are.

Chicago Cubs- How can the Cubs screw this up? The only thing that can stop this group of players from achieving greatness is their own franchise's powerful curse. The amount of young talent here is staggering. This team hit the fourth most home runs in the NL last year, and I can't imagine that ranking not going up this season. Bryant, Schwarber, and Rizzo all have 40 home run power. This team does strike out a lot (like, A LOT), but player progression should lower some of the k rates in the middle of the lineup. This is a really good defensive team (Kyle Schwarber's defensive struggles were greatly exaggerated) that will only get better with the addition of Jason Heyward. Jake Arrieta will still be an ace, spearheading a great staff that lead the majors in strikeouts and fielding independent pitching. They're my bet to have the best record in the league this season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them playing deep into October. Unless, of course, Cubs things happen.

Pittsburgh Pirates- Another complete team from the NL Central. This team finished second in the majors in ERA, ERA+, and FIP (they didn't even lead their own division in any of those). And while they had a surprisingly bad defense (23rd out of 30 teams), they had the best offense of the Central Powers (just created that nickname don't steal it). Even with these three great teams, I think this division only gets two playoff teams (it's an even numbered year, after all). I'm obviously high on the Cubs, and I think the Pirates will be the other team. I think they'll be doomed to yet another wild card game, though, a fate they cannot seem to avoid, no matter how good their team is. Hopefully for them Gerrit Cole won't puke all over himself this time.

Cincinnati Reds- Outside Joey Votto being one of the most under appreciated hitters ever, there's just not much to be excited about with this team. They were bottom-10 in the majors in hitting, pitching, and defense. They just kind of stink at everything. Maybe Jesse Winkler will debut and make the team somewhat interesting, but probably not. Not even the Most Interesting Man in the World could make the Reds interesting this season.

Milwaukee Brewers- Another boring, shitty team at the bottom of the NL Central. This team sucks and won't do anything this year. However, now that Craig Counsel has had time to really get settled in as manager, hopefully he will have converted some players to his no batting gloves, crazy stance approach. He legitimately had a top-5 most ridiculous stance of all time. I'm sure he'll be disappointed when he finds out Ryan Braun lied about practicing his stance all offseason (I'm pretty sure Ryan Braun would lie if you asked him what he ate for breakfast this morning), maybe the rest of the team will use it. It can't possibly hurt their on-field performance.

Division Outlook: The top of this division is so good. The Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates could all win the World Series this season. But, unlike last year, the Senior Circuit consists of more than the NL Central. The NL West will challenge for the second wild card spot, and I believe one of them will grab it (stay tuned to find out who!). Sorry Cardinals fans, you're out. I'm sure you will handle this with grace and class and not call me every offensive thing in the book. Since you're all so classy, and all.

Winner- Cubs
Wild Card- Pirates

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers- The Dodgers won their third straight division title last year, mostly riding the dominance of Kershaw and Greinke. Their offense was weird, tying for the third highest team OPS+ in the majors, but finishing in the bottom half in runs scored. That won't happen often. Even though the front office changed the focus to pitching and defense, the defense was merely average, and, to replace  Greinke (who probably should have won the Cy Young) they brought in... Scott Kazmir. Pretty underwhelming considering the deep pockets this team has shown in the past. This is still a good team, though. Kershaw will dominate, Corey Seager is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year, and I'm a believer in a Yasiel Puig bounce back season. If Joc Pederson wasn't cursed by the Home Run Derby, he could approach 35-40 home runs if he doesn't collapse like he did last year. There's no reason this team can't make the playoffs again this year. They're also far from a lock in my mind. I think they'll have to fight until the end of the season to make the playoffs, and it will likely come down to the final week. Will they prevail? I'm not convinced. I think their playoff streak ends this season.

San Francisco Giants- Wait, what year is it? 2016? That's all I need to know. Aside from the obvious magic the Giants have working for them, there are legitimate reasons to believe in this San Fran team. Bumgarner is still a horse, and, even though neither Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija were great last season, they're still welcome additions to an already pretty good pitching staff. I'm a big Matt Cain fan, and I think he'll have a good year, but, if he doesn't, Chris Heston is a good fifth starter. This was a good offense last season, and they didn't lose anyone consequential. As long as they have Buster Posey, I'll always believe in the Giants. This year is no different. I think they'll win the division, and I'm not going to be the one to be caught off guard when this team wins another World Series.

Arizona Diamondbacks- I've gone back and forth on the Diamondbacks a million times. Weird new jerseys. Huge name acquisitions. We've seen the win-now spending spree from random teams before, and it literally never works. But what if the team was already pretty good beforehand? The Dbacks were great on defense last season, finishing 3rd in UZR, and they have one of the most dynamic one-two punches in the majors in Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. The core of this lineup is young and getting better. The pitching wasn't great, but that's why you bring in Greinke and Shelby Miller. I don't know, this could burn me, but I actually believe in this team. I think that they have enough talent to make the playoffs, and if they play with consistency, I think they will. This could be 2001 all over again.

Colorado Rockies- For whatever reason, I've always loved the Rockies. I love their uniforms (purple is my favorite color), I love Coors Field, and I love home runs. I'll always root for them and they're my go-to team to start a franchise with in MLB The Show. Now, this team is terrible. The pitching is an abomination, the defense stinks, and, though the offense is exciting, most of it is a product of the thin air. Nolan Arenado will put up massive numbers again, as will Carlos Gonzalez, and the team will continue to be great to watch late at light when there's nothing on. Rockies home games in 2016 will be the safest bet if you're looking for high scoring games, though it will be the visiting teams doing most of the scoring.

San Diego Padres- The most interesting thing about the Padres is just how long they've been boring. Seriously, a team of literal dead bodies would move the needle more than this team. I know I said I didn't do much research while also doing a small amount of research, well for the Padres I literally did none. For some reason I subjected my eyes to a few Padres games when I needed some sleep, and I'd be surprised if any National League team had a worse defense. The Padres defense being awful is the only thing I remember about them. Their jerseys are sartorial Ambien. Their offense is bad. Their pitching couldn't be more average. This team stinks and will do nothing. That's my safest proclamation of this whole thing.


Division Outlook: This is the most interesting division in the NL for me. Any combination of the Giants, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks winning the division and second wild card spot would make sense. No division had as many high profile moves (or, in the Dodgers case, lack of moves), and I'm very curious to see how they pan out. I'm not messing with the Giants mojo. And I just like the Diamondbacks more than the Dodgers. I never said this was 100% scientific.

Winner- Giants
Wild Card- Diamondbacks

SUPER SPECIAL BONUS PREDICTION
I bet you didn't see this coming. I've got another prediction to round out a bunch of other perfect predictions. I'm sure you can guess, but this is my World Series pick:

GIANTS over Red Sox

Never let anyone say I'm not subjective.

Denver Wins Super Bowl 50

Man, am I good at predictions, or what? Saw that coming a mile away.

So last night, the Broncos beat up the Panthers, winning 24-10 in a pretty ugly game that was completely dominated by both defenses. I did think it would be low scoring, considering these are probably two of the three best defenses in the league. But I really thought it would go the other way. I underestimated the Broncos defense again, and they proved a lot of people wrong, again. Peyton Manning goes out (one would think) as a winner, the storybook ending all of America craved so desperately.

People probably assume that I hate Peyton just because I'm a huge Patriots fan. Truth is, I don't hate Peyton. I actually think he's a pretty funny guy and he's clearly a good dude. I have a lot of respect for Peyton and realize that the postseason struggles from early in his career had a lot to do with his whole team sucking, not just him. But if you think that because Peyton now has a second ring that means he's clearly better than Brady, you just weren't watching all season. Peyton was terrible again yesterday, doing everything he could to cost his team the game. The interception he threw was dreadful, and he couldn't move the ball whatsoever all game. Granted, he was going against an excellent defense, but still.

Man, though, that Denver defense is good. Knee-jerk reaction says they're probably a top 5 defense of all time. Certainly top 5 of the modern era. I'm not really sure how the numbers will compare them with teams like the 2000 ravens, 2002 Bucs, or 2013/14 Seahawks, but they have to be pretty close. Their pass rush is totally dominating. I've always said Von Miller comes through in big games, and he  and DeMarcus Ware destroyed Carolina, just like they destroyed New England. Even with a lousy game from Aqib Talib, the secondary easily shut down the Panthers' underwhelming receivers. The final numbers look good, but the Panthers' running game could never really get anything going, and most of their yards came on Cam Newton scrambles.

As far as Cam goes, he wasn't great. But not many people are great against a defense like this. He was off on a bunch of throws early, but his receivers dropped a lot of passes, too. The fumble he didn't dive for certainly wasn't a great look. While I think he probably just froze, it doesn't help his case against people who will want to say he quit when things weren't going his way. I think criticizing his post-game press conference is just hating for the sake of hating. Should he have walked out? Probably not. But if he was happy, smiling Cam the same people who are calling him classless and pouty would just say he's being arrogant and that he doesn't care he just lost. The only people who have more intense hatred for someone than the people that hate Cam are the people that hate Joe Buck. It's become totally irrational at this point. He's upset he didn't perform well in the biggest moment of his life. What do you want him to do? Get on his knees and blow Peyton? Try to suck some of the "classiness" out of him? Never dance or smile again, becoming a Derek Jeter clone? Get the Michael Jackson surgery? Please let me know, because I can't figure it out.

So yeah, this Super Bowl wasn't great, but the right team won. Denver outplayed them from the opening kickoff. Carolina's Kony Ealy will be forgotten, but he was amazing. But then again, so was just about every defensive player on the Broncos. So congrats, Peyton. Now please, just retire already.

Super Bowl Preview

So, I didn't have a great week last time out. 0-2 picking the Championship Games. It happens to the best of them. Or maybe I was just playing possum, letting everyone think I'm human before going on another huge winning streak. You'll never know.

Anyway, let's get to the big game: my beloved New England Patriots the Denver Broncos versus the Carolina Panthers. Plenty to digest here, so let's get to it. I'll start with the game itself, then throw in some props at the end. Lines from Bovada.


CAROLINA PANTHERS (-6) vs. Denver Broncos
This line has grown over the two week layoff, but that doesn't scare me one bit. We've seen this matchup before: highest scoring team going against number one defense. More often than not, the top defense comes out on top. However, the top offense doesn't usually have one of the top five defenses in the league behind it, either. I think that while most of the attention is being paid to the matchup between Carolina's offense and Denver's defense, the mismatch between Carolina's defense and Denver's offense will decide the game. Read this to get a really in-depth look at the game. The good folks at Football Outsiders have less faith in Carolina's offense than I do. While I agree that Carolina's offense has been propped up by a series of big plays and good field position, I think that they've had that good field position for a reason. The Broncos red zone run defense has been surprisingly shaky given their dominance in most other areas, which could play perfectly into the Panthers' powerful running game. Ground had a huge game against the Broncos, and Greg Olsen is no slouch. He could have a big game. And, I mean, Denver's offense is so, so bad. Peyton Manning has been worse this year than Trent Dilfer was in 2000, the ultimate measuring stick for horrible qbs on winning teams. They aren't going to do anything. Outside two first half drives, they did nothing against the Pats, and Carolina's defense is better. I can't say it enough times. The Broncos offense is utter garbage. Steaming, stinky, messy garbage. It speaks volumes to the Broncos great defense that they're anywhere near the championship. Denver has played in 15 one score games this season and won 12. Their luck will finally run out Sunday.

Score:
24-10 Panthers

Some props I'll be betting:

Anthem- under 2:20
Heads or Tails- heads
First score of the game- Panthers safety (why not)
First Coldplay song- Viva La Vida
Beyonce's shoe color- Gold
Gatorade color- orange

Want to make a ton of money and impress everyone at your Super Bowl party? Follow my advice. You're welcome.

Just How Cursed Are the Lions?

The big news today was the Calvin Johnson, future Hall of Fame receiver, was probably retiring at age 30. With $16 million coming his way next season, he's basically telling the Lions "yeah, I'd rather not be in this environment anymore." Given that their last star retired early as well, that the team is always terrible, and that they have only ever made one Conference Championship game (which they lost by 30) since 1957, I think it's fair to ask if the Lions are cursed. Not just sports cursed. They're clearly sports cursed. I mean legitimately cursed.

I live in close proximity to Charles Island in Milford, Connecticut. It's one of the most cursed islands in the world, haunted by three of the most powerful curses in existence. It's got two cursed treasures and a desecrated Indian burial ground. Having walked these cursed sands and mingled with the phantoms and spirits that swirl around the island, I'm an expert in the occult, specifically curses. Dark spirits surround Ford Field, and using my expertise, I'll try and diagnose which demon's wrath the Lions have incurred. Let's start by going through the most powerful of curses and see if we can find what plagues the poor Lions.

Sports Curse: A number of things can cause a team to be cursed: when a team trades a legend, threatens the integrity of the game, angers Lil' B, anything, really. If something upsets the mojo of a team, it may lead to a curse situation. The Thunder, for example, may now be cursed. We're yet to find out. But still, the Lions go well beyond a sports curse. The Red Sox at least made the World Series a few times. The Cubs have had hope. Outside Barry Sanders, the Lions have had nothing. Sure, the Clippers haven't had much, but their ineptitude may go deeper than a simple sports curse. Bottom line, the recipe to beat a sports curse is easy enough: just get the right players and win the title. That will clearly never happen in Detroit, so let's move on.

Black Magic: Performed by a vengeful witch or warlock, a black magic curse is tough to shake. Anything could happen, be it just bad luck or the deaths of all you hold dear. If the Ford family ever crossed the wrong wizard, they may have picked up a curse along the way. But to kill everyone in the state of Michigan every weekend with each horrible Lions loss for nigh 60 years? No one person could cause such damage. So, barring a particularly petty secret warlock's guild that has it out for the Lions, I'm ruling this out.

Cursed Artifact: If anyone in the Lions organization happened to have a cursed artifact in their possession, then some of their impotence may be explained. The Hope Diamond is the most famous example, but there are plenty of cursed items scattered throughout the world. Anything taken from a burial site of any kind, a personal belonging of a particularly evil person, something chosen by Satan himself to be a vessel for his malevolent soul, almost anything can be a cursed artifact. And it's not so simple as just getting rid of it. You need a full seance to cleanse yourself of the curse. I'm assuming the Lions have considered this. So unless Martha Ford's necklace was dug up from Montezuma's grave and grants her eternal life, I'd assume there are no cursed items at play.

Ghosts: Now we're getting into the real problems. Because I'm not talking about run of the mill poltergeists or mischievous ghosts. I'm talking about murdered ghosts. I'm talking about blood everywhere, gruesomely murdered ghosts. The kind of ghosts that don't like the way they go out. Vengeful ghosts have ruined many an establishment. Haunted castles, haunted hotels, haunted manors, haunted asylums, ever met someone who came out alive? I haven't. Evil ghosts kill people that encroach on their territory. You can't just do an exorcism, either. To get rid of angry, bloodthirsty ghosts you need to find out what they want. The head of their murderer's descendants? The blood of someone who betrayed them? Their treasure returned (more on this momentarily)? Appease their wishes to send their souls to rest. There's a very real possibility that a Lions fan died on the job while building the Silverdome and haunted the stadium. But they switched stadiums and still suck. So it's probably not this.

Cursed Treasure: This is the second most powerful curse of all. A cursed treasure, be it pirate treasure (most common), an emperor's treasure, or the sacred treasure of an ancient civilization, cursed treasure is far more powerful than a mere cursed artifact. Take but one piece of the accursed gold and your life will fall to ruin. You won't necessarily turn into a living skeleton, but you will suffer. And suffer a lot. Madness, visions of horrifying specters, disease, death, and bad luck are just some of the side effects of disturbing the slumber of the hexed riches. You will never know pleasure or happiness again as long as the curse follows you. There are lots of reasons for a treasure to become cursed, but most of them boil down to the owner of the treasure not wanting his treasure disturbed. So while the curse itself is very powerful, most of them are simple to break: just return the treasure. Some of the more avaricious pirates and treasure hoarders may require you provide them with interest, as well. Like cursed artifacts, you'd have to be pretty thick not to realize that you have a piece of cursed treasure. I'm giving the Lions the benefit of the doubt here. They aren't the Browns, after all.

Indian Burial Ground: There's little doubt what the most powerful curse is. The history of Indian burial grounds is long and ghastly. Amityville Horror, Charles Island, the curse of Tippecanoe, the Clippers. Bad things happen when you mess with Indians. Very bad things. Impossible to defeat things. There are only two ways to break an Indian curse: either don't get cursed or die. There's nothing mortal humans can do break a curse from an Indian spirit. This is the most likely reason for the Lions' misfortune. The 1957 Lions must have upset some Native American spirits. Something that Lions team did triggered this curse, I'm guessing that the practice field was built over a burial ground. That is the only thing that can explain it. So, the only thing to do now is wait until everyone that worked for the team, played on the team, or paid to watch the team play dies. Sounds morbid, but it's the only solution. As long as some still survive that offended the powerful souls surrounding the franchise, the Lions will never be able to achieve much of anything.

2016 AL Team Forecasts

Now that we're under three weeks until pitchers and catchers report, it's time to quickly and haphazardly guess how each team will do while doing minimal research. Just kidding, I don't guess. These are ironclad guarantees. If anything other than what I predict happens this season, consider it an extreme anomaly.

I'll give my take each team's big moves, coaching changes, uniform changes, really anything that might affect a team's season in any way, then I'll perfectly predict how each team will do and how each division will shake up. I won't delve too deep into any team, mostly just going over broad trends and basic stats. Anything worth going into deeper I'll save for closer to the season. I'll divide it into American League and National League. Let's start with the deepest division in the majors.

AL East

Boston Red Sox- As a lifelong Red Sox fan, I'm more excited for this season than I have been in a long time. The lineup, which finally caught fire in the second half, is stacked. Mookie Betts should take another step forward, as should Xander Bogaerts. Both should be easy All Stars. Jackie Bradley, Jr. cooled off at the end of last season, and I expect him to hit somewhere in the .250-.260 range. With his defense, that's plenty. Rusty Castillo finished the year hot, and his defense was actually better than Bradley's. It speaks volumes that this finished as a top-10 defensive outfield when Hanley Ramirez, one of the worst fielders of all time, spent a huge chunk of games in left. While I'm not super pumped for the David Ortiz retirement tour, I am pumped for a full season of Blake Swihart and a hopeful return of Christian Vasquez to create a two headed monster at catcher. Pablo Sandoval is reportedly in much better shape, which is good, and Hanley Ramirez is still on the roster, which is not good. David Price and Craig Kimbrel should take a pitching staff that went from awful to not the worst over the course of the season to respectable levels this season. If Eduardo Rodriguez can become a consistent number 2-3 starter, the rotation should be better than last year. Their middle of the road defense will improve this year, which, combined with the new pitching, should mean they won't have to score as many runs to win. I'm expecting big things this season.

New York Yankees- How the Yankees made the playoffs last season with below average pitching and awful fielding is a bit of a mystery, but now that they have Aroldis Chapman, they essentially only need to play six inning games. So don't expect the mystifying wins to stop coming. With a lineup perfectly suited to the second most home run-friendly ballpark in the league, the Yanks should be able to get just as lucky this season. Or will they? It's been a full year since they've had a retirement tour. Those have been the lifeblood of the pinstripes in recent years, so don't be surprised if the Yankees provide some incentives to A-Rod to retire soon.

Baltimore Orioles- The Orioles took a step back after a 96 win season in 2014, and I don't really expect them to get back to that level this season, either. There's no denying this team has plenty of talented players, but there's something missing. The pitching staff isn't all that good, as evidenced by finishing bottom half in fielding independent pitching. The offense hits a lot of home runs, but they also strike out a ton and don't walk much. That's not a great recipe. This team will provide plenty of highlights, but none will come after September.

Tampa Bay Rays- One of the more intriguing teams this season in my mind, the Rays come off a season where they undoubtedly outperformed expectations. Dominant defense from Kevin Kiermaier and a great season from Chris Archer helped keep the Rays afloat, but the whole team chipped in. They finished with above average pitching, hitting, and defense. Now that they have Corey Dickerson, an underrated hitter who still performed well last season despite a rash of injuries, I think they'll be able to make some noise. Watch out for them to make a run at a wild card spot.

Toronto Blue Jays- The best offense in the majors by a mile, the Blue Jays should bludgeon their way to another good season this year. However, I'm not convinced they'll run away with the division, or even win it. Without David Price, their pitching is, umm, how do I put it? Not good? Is that fair? A full season of Marcus Stroman will be a plus, but after him it's a barren wasteland. The other starters stink. Their bullpen sucks. Sure, when Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion, and Tulowitzki get going they could put me on the mound and still win, but their pitching will cost them games this season.


Division outlook: This is easily the best division in the AL, and I expect AL East teams to be in the hunt for both wild card spots all season. I'm not sure if I trust the teams in the AL West to play well enough to keep the Bombers out, and the AL wild card game will be an all AL East affair. Because I'm an optimistic homer, I think the Red Sox win the division, but one injury or weeklong slump can cost them in a division this tight.

Winner- Red Sox
Wild Card #1- Blue Jays
Wild Card #2- Yankees

AL Central

Kansas City Royals- The World Series champs will still be in the mix this season. They lost Johnny Cueto, but aside from his great World Series start, he kind of sucked for them. The only position player they lost was Ben Zobrist, but Alex Gordon is back for a full season. Their dominant defense, number one by a huge margin in UZR, should continue to take hits away, as should their shutdown bullpen. Most importantly for them, this division is still weak and there for the taking. Expect to see them go deep in the playoffs again.

Chicago White Sox- The worst defense in the league and the worst offense in the American League (last in runs scored, second to last in OPS+) cost a solid pitching staff. Bringing in Todd Frazier could help the offense, but it should really serve to help the defense, where he is an underrated defensive third baseman. Other than that, I mean, there's not much to this team. Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu are both really good on offense and horrible on defense. Outside Chris Sale, the pitching staff is okay, but not breathtaking. They've got some good young arms. But still, this team isn't going to sniff the Royals. An Alex Avila revenge tour is just about the only interesting thing about this team.

Detroit Tigers- They just feel like the Brooklyn Nets. A lot of old guys, a roster that isn't very good, and no future. This pitching staff was absolutely awful last season, worst in the AL by almost any metric, and all they did to address it was add Jordan Zimmermann, who's coming off his worst season since 2010. Sure, Miguel Cabrera will still eat pitchers for breakfast, lunch, and dinner and J.D. Martinez was one of last season's breakout stars, but there just isn't much to be excited about here. Justin Upton is going from one pitcher friendly park to another. I'm thinking another last place finish. But hey, I'm glad the Sox got the man who built this team!

Minnesota Twins- No team has more young stars than the Twins, who will have (theoretically) a full season of top prospect Byron Buxton and Korean import Byung Ho Park to go along with Miguel Sano, a man who looks like an old-timey strong man and swings like his life depends on it, not to mention the handful of great prospects they have in the minors. This team was a pleasant surprise last season, but much of the success seemed to be mostly smoke and mirrors. Baseball Prospectus projects they should have only won 72 games last year. I think this year's record will be closer to that than the 83 wins they had last year, which was the biggest over performance in the American League. Their offense, which was pretty bad last season, might take a step forward with the young talent maturing, the pitching is merely average. This team is still a few years away.

Cleveland Indians- Speaking of Baseball Prospectus' projections, the Indians were the mirror image of the Twins. Their 93 projected wins was the biggest increase in the majors. Since they only won 81 games in real life, it's easy to say that this team was just unlucky. This was the best pitching staff in the American league in ERA+, FIP, and strikeouts, and the defense was top-10 in the league. They were great at preventing runs, just not especially good at scoring them. Their position players combined for a -3 WAR, and the team was bottom half in the league in most offensive categories. They have some building blocks in Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, and Michael Brantley, but they need to perform better on offense to match the pitching staff and get closer to that projected win total.


Division Outlook: There just isn't enough competition for the Royals here. The Indians could make a run, but they've been too inconsistent the last few seasons. I could easily see Cleveland coming close to a wild card spot, but the Tigers and White Sox stink and the Twins will take a step back this season. This is the Royals' division to lose.

Winner- Royals


AL West

Houston Astros- Going from fastest turnaround ever to near collapse as last season ended, the Astros sit in the always-enviable position of being able to go for win-now moves while also being set up for the future. Houston's offense is ridiculously free-swinging, leading the American League in strikeouts (somehow still well behind the Cubs for the MLB lead), but it's also very potent. They finished second in home runs and third in OPS+, and, given the bandbox they play in and their young stars probably improvement, will repeat that output this season. The pitching is very good and getting better with the addition of Ken Giles. If the Astros can improve a slightly below-average defense, this could be the most complete team in the American League. Carlos Correa could challenge for the MVP as soon as this season. I'll chalk up last September to youth and inexperience.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County in California of the United States of America in North America of the Western Hemisphere of the planet Earth- How you finish in the bottom half of the league in runs when you have one of the greatest player of all time on your team is beyond me, especially in a bounce-back year from Albert Pujols. The Angels wasted a year of prime Mike Trout with a pretty listless season last year, and the big move they made was adding Andrelton Simmons. While it will undoubtedly help the defense and pitching staff in a big way, it isn't a huge upgrade on offense, which the Angels need. In fact, in terms of offensiveWAR, he was a full win below Erick Aybar. I just haven't seen enough from this team to think they'll really make a serious playoff push. Unless, of course, Mike Trout takes his game to yet another level.

Texas Rangers- I'm not totally sure what to expect from this team. They were fifth in the majors in team UZR on defense, but their fielding independent pitching was only ahead of the Tigers in the American League. They were third in the league in runs scored, but only tenth in OPS+, which adjusts for ballpark effects, which means the offense, to a small extent, was a product of their home stadium. The had a red hot second half of the season, winning at a .622 clip after the All Star break, a 100 win pace. I don't know, I can't see that happening again. This just doesn't feel like a great team. Rangers pitching will never be good. And while Joey Gallo will hopefully provide a jolt of power, I don't think this team makes the playoffs again.

Seattle Mariners- This team is just so blah. The defense is garbage, the pitching is okay, and the offense is good not great. Robinson Cano's superficial stats were still decent last season, but his WAR went down by three full wins and his OPS+ went down almost 30 points. His best days are behind him, which surprised me, since I thought players only got better after they turn 30 and you take them out of the most lefty-friendly stadium ever built. Weird. Even Felix Hernandez showed signs of decline last year. This team's not doing anything this season.

Oakland Athletics- If it weren't for bad luck, the A's would have no luck at all. No team had a worse record in one run games. They underperformed their win expectancy by almost 12 wins. At least in the first half. They had a dreadful second half. Their offense totally shut down, their defense fell apart, and their pitching fell off. All those one run games they couldn't win came mostly in the first half of the season, since they spent most of the second half getting blown out. I think this season will be somewhere in between the two halves. They didn't really make any moves, and the roster is still middle of the road.



Division Outlook: A lot of questions surround this division. Which Astros team will show up? Can the Rangers keep it going? Will the Angels show up at all? Will the Mariners somehow have a more forgettable season than last year? How many games will Jonah Hill and Brad Pitt go to? This division will only have one playoff team, though the Rangers and Angels will be in in until the end. Houston wins.

Winner- Astros