2016 AL Team Forecasts

Now that we're under three weeks until pitchers and catchers report, it's time to quickly and haphazardly guess how each team will do while doing minimal research. Just kidding, I don't guess. These are ironclad guarantees. If anything other than what I predict happens this season, consider it an extreme anomaly.

I'll give my take each team's big moves, coaching changes, uniform changes, really anything that might affect a team's season in any way, then I'll perfectly predict how each team will do and how each division will shake up. I won't delve too deep into any team, mostly just going over broad trends and basic stats. Anything worth going into deeper I'll save for closer to the season. I'll divide it into American League and National League. Let's start with the deepest division in the majors.

AL East

Boston Red Sox- As a lifelong Red Sox fan, I'm more excited for this season than I have been in a long time. The lineup, which finally caught fire in the second half, is stacked. Mookie Betts should take another step forward, as should Xander Bogaerts. Both should be easy All Stars. Jackie Bradley, Jr. cooled off at the end of last season, and I expect him to hit somewhere in the .250-.260 range. With his defense, that's plenty. Rusty Castillo finished the year hot, and his defense was actually better than Bradley's. It speaks volumes that this finished as a top-10 defensive outfield when Hanley Ramirez, one of the worst fielders of all time, spent a huge chunk of games in left. While I'm not super pumped for the David Ortiz retirement tour, I am pumped for a full season of Blake Swihart and a hopeful return of Christian Vasquez to create a two headed monster at catcher. Pablo Sandoval is reportedly in much better shape, which is good, and Hanley Ramirez is still on the roster, which is not good. David Price and Craig Kimbrel should take a pitching staff that went from awful to not the worst over the course of the season to respectable levels this season. If Eduardo Rodriguez can become a consistent number 2-3 starter, the rotation should be better than last year. Their middle of the road defense will improve this year, which, combined with the new pitching, should mean they won't have to score as many runs to win. I'm expecting big things this season.

New York Yankees- How the Yankees made the playoffs last season with below average pitching and awful fielding is a bit of a mystery, but now that they have Aroldis Chapman, they essentially only need to play six inning games. So don't expect the mystifying wins to stop coming. With a lineup perfectly suited to the second most home run-friendly ballpark in the league, the Yanks should be able to get just as lucky this season. Or will they? It's been a full year since they've had a retirement tour. Those have been the lifeblood of the pinstripes in recent years, so don't be surprised if the Yankees provide some incentives to A-Rod to retire soon.

Baltimore Orioles- The Orioles took a step back after a 96 win season in 2014, and I don't really expect them to get back to that level this season, either. There's no denying this team has plenty of talented players, but there's something missing. The pitching staff isn't all that good, as evidenced by finishing bottom half in fielding independent pitching. The offense hits a lot of home runs, but they also strike out a ton and don't walk much. That's not a great recipe. This team will provide plenty of highlights, but none will come after September.

Tampa Bay Rays- One of the more intriguing teams this season in my mind, the Rays come off a season where they undoubtedly outperformed expectations. Dominant defense from Kevin Kiermaier and a great season from Chris Archer helped keep the Rays afloat, but the whole team chipped in. They finished with above average pitching, hitting, and defense. Now that they have Corey Dickerson, an underrated hitter who still performed well last season despite a rash of injuries, I think they'll be able to make some noise. Watch out for them to make a run at a wild card spot.

Toronto Blue Jays- The best offense in the majors by a mile, the Blue Jays should bludgeon their way to another good season this year. However, I'm not convinced they'll run away with the division, or even win it. Without David Price, their pitching is, umm, how do I put it? Not good? Is that fair? A full season of Marcus Stroman will be a plus, but after him it's a barren wasteland. The other starters stink. Their bullpen sucks. Sure, when Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion, and Tulowitzki get going they could put me on the mound and still win, but their pitching will cost them games this season.


Division outlook: This is easily the best division in the AL, and I expect AL East teams to be in the hunt for both wild card spots all season. I'm not sure if I trust the teams in the AL West to play well enough to keep the Bombers out, and the AL wild card game will be an all AL East affair. Because I'm an optimistic homer, I think the Red Sox win the division, but one injury or weeklong slump can cost them in a division this tight.

Winner- Red Sox
Wild Card #1- Blue Jays
Wild Card #2- Yankees

AL Central

Kansas City Royals- The World Series champs will still be in the mix this season. They lost Johnny Cueto, but aside from his great World Series start, he kind of sucked for them. The only position player they lost was Ben Zobrist, but Alex Gordon is back for a full season. Their dominant defense, number one by a huge margin in UZR, should continue to take hits away, as should their shutdown bullpen. Most importantly for them, this division is still weak and there for the taking. Expect to see them go deep in the playoffs again.

Chicago White Sox- The worst defense in the league and the worst offense in the American League (last in runs scored, second to last in OPS+) cost a solid pitching staff. Bringing in Todd Frazier could help the offense, but it should really serve to help the defense, where he is an underrated defensive third baseman. Other than that, I mean, there's not much to this team. Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu are both really good on offense and horrible on defense. Outside Chris Sale, the pitching staff is okay, but not breathtaking. They've got some good young arms. But still, this team isn't going to sniff the Royals. An Alex Avila revenge tour is just about the only interesting thing about this team.

Detroit Tigers- They just feel like the Brooklyn Nets. A lot of old guys, a roster that isn't very good, and no future. This pitching staff was absolutely awful last season, worst in the AL by almost any metric, and all they did to address it was add Jordan Zimmermann, who's coming off his worst season since 2010. Sure, Miguel Cabrera will still eat pitchers for breakfast, lunch, and dinner and J.D. Martinez was one of last season's breakout stars, but there just isn't much to be excited about here. Justin Upton is going from one pitcher friendly park to another. I'm thinking another last place finish. But hey, I'm glad the Sox got the man who built this team!

Minnesota Twins- No team has more young stars than the Twins, who will have (theoretically) a full season of top prospect Byron Buxton and Korean import Byung Ho Park to go along with Miguel Sano, a man who looks like an old-timey strong man and swings like his life depends on it, not to mention the handful of great prospects they have in the minors. This team was a pleasant surprise last season, but much of the success seemed to be mostly smoke and mirrors. Baseball Prospectus projects they should have only won 72 games last year. I think this year's record will be closer to that than the 83 wins they had last year, which was the biggest over performance in the American League. Their offense, which was pretty bad last season, might take a step forward with the young talent maturing, the pitching is merely average. This team is still a few years away.

Cleveland Indians- Speaking of Baseball Prospectus' projections, the Indians were the mirror image of the Twins. Their 93 projected wins was the biggest increase in the majors. Since they only won 81 games in real life, it's easy to say that this team was just unlucky. This was the best pitching staff in the American league in ERA+, FIP, and strikeouts, and the defense was top-10 in the league. They were great at preventing runs, just not especially good at scoring them. Their position players combined for a -3 WAR, and the team was bottom half in the league in most offensive categories. They have some building blocks in Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, and Michael Brantley, but they need to perform better on offense to match the pitching staff and get closer to that projected win total.


Division Outlook: There just isn't enough competition for the Royals here. The Indians could make a run, but they've been too inconsistent the last few seasons. I could easily see Cleveland coming close to a wild card spot, but the Tigers and White Sox stink and the Twins will take a step back this season. This is the Royals' division to lose.

Winner- Royals


AL West

Houston Astros- Going from fastest turnaround ever to near collapse as last season ended, the Astros sit in the always-enviable position of being able to go for win-now moves while also being set up for the future. Houston's offense is ridiculously free-swinging, leading the American League in strikeouts (somehow still well behind the Cubs for the MLB lead), but it's also very potent. They finished second in home runs and third in OPS+, and, given the bandbox they play in and their young stars probably improvement, will repeat that output this season. The pitching is very good and getting better with the addition of Ken Giles. If the Astros can improve a slightly below-average defense, this could be the most complete team in the American League. Carlos Correa could challenge for the MVP as soon as this season. I'll chalk up last September to youth and inexperience.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County in California of the United States of America in North America of the Western Hemisphere of the planet Earth- How you finish in the bottom half of the league in runs when you have one of the greatest player of all time on your team is beyond me, especially in a bounce-back year from Albert Pujols. The Angels wasted a year of prime Mike Trout with a pretty listless season last year, and the big move they made was adding Andrelton Simmons. While it will undoubtedly help the defense and pitching staff in a big way, it isn't a huge upgrade on offense, which the Angels need. In fact, in terms of offensiveWAR, he was a full win below Erick Aybar. I just haven't seen enough from this team to think they'll really make a serious playoff push. Unless, of course, Mike Trout takes his game to yet another level.

Texas Rangers- I'm not totally sure what to expect from this team. They were fifth in the majors in team UZR on defense, but their fielding independent pitching was only ahead of the Tigers in the American League. They were third in the league in runs scored, but only tenth in OPS+, which adjusts for ballpark effects, which means the offense, to a small extent, was a product of their home stadium. The had a red hot second half of the season, winning at a .622 clip after the All Star break, a 100 win pace. I don't know, I can't see that happening again. This just doesn't feel like a great team. Rangers pitching will never be good. And while Joey Gallo will hopefully provide a jolt of power, I don't think this team makes the playoffs again.

Seattle Mariners- This team is just so blah. The defense is garbage, the pitching is okay, and the offense is good not great. Robinson Cano's superficial stats were still decent last season, but his WAR went down by three full wins and his OPS+ went down almost 30 points. His best days are behind him, which surprised me, since I thought players only got better after they turn 30 and you take them out of the most lefty-friendly stadium ever built. Weird. Even Felix Hernandez showed signs of decline last year. This team's not doing anything this season.

Oakland Athletics- If it weren't for bad luck, the A's would have no luck at all. No team had a worse record in one run games. They underperformed their win expectancy by almost 12 wins. At least in the first half. They had a dreadful second half. Their offense totally shut down, their defense fell apart, and their pitching fell off. All those one run games they couldn't win came mostly in the first half of the season, since they spent most of the second half getting blown out. I think this season will be somewhere in between the two halves. They didn't really make any moves, and the roster is still middle of the road.



Division Outlook: A lot of questions surround this division. Which Astros team will show up? Can the Rangers keep it going? Will the Angels show up at all? Will the Mariners somehow have a more forgettable season than last year? How many games will Jonah Hill and Brad Pitt go to? This division will only have one playoff team, though the Rangers and Angels will be in in until the end. Houston wins.

Winner- Astros