National League 2016 Team Forecasts

We're back to look forward to the National League. If you missed my take on the AL, then I seriously question your judgement. After all, why turn down free predictions from Baseballdamus? (I just made that nickname for myself and I'm not sure if it'll stick). As with the American League, these team previews come with minimal research, knee jerk reactions, and iron-clad prognostications.


NL East

New York Mets- The Mets are coming into this season with a lot of optimism. A world series run, resigning Yoenis Cespedes (at least for now), and still having a stacked starting rotation will do that. Steven Matz will be a good bet for rookie of the year, and both Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom will make a run at the Cy Young. The Mets turnaround of offense (going from second to last in the NL in runs before the All-Star game to leading the NL in runs after it) was remarkable, but I'm not sure it will be sustainable. Sure, they won't be the weak and anemic team they were for most of the first half, but I expect them to finish middle of the pack in most offensive numbers. The only major change for the Mets is swapping postseason god Daniel Murphy for Neil Walker. This will probably wind up a wash. Last postseason aside, Murphy pretty much is what he is at this point: a .280-.290 hitter without much power or speed and a bad fielder. Walker is somehow a worse fielder, hits for a slightly lower average, and adds more consistent power. Overall, this team is in great shape for this season. The defense is average, and with this rotation, that's plenty good enough. The key will be how close the offense can get to repeating last second half. I think they'll get close enough to take the division.

 Washington Nationals- Last year's "it" team failed to live up to the hype, despite an unreal season from Bryce Harper and a great season from import Max Scherzer. It's almost impressive that this team finished so low in the team OPS+ rankings when they had one of the highest OPS+ numbers of the modern era in the middle of their lineup. The pitching was still good, ranking quite highly in ERA+ and FIP, all while having a shitty defense behind it. The team has plenty of talent, and one would expect them to have a better season this go around. Anthony Rendon will play more than 80 games, Trea Turner is another rookie of the year frontrunner, and Bryce is still only 23. This should be one a much improved team. Post-hype teams often perform well once the pressure has been turned off. Not saying this team will win the World Series or anything, but they should make a serious push at a wild card spot. Plus, they fired Matt Williams. That's a big addition by subtraction. So, who will they get to replace him? A young, smart manager who knows how to mix the analytical side with the traditional side? Someone who knows in-game situations and can perfectly manage a bullpen over a 162 game season? Wait, what's that? They already got someone? Who? Dusty Baker? Oh. I take everything back. This team is going nowhere.

Miami Marlins- Not to be the turd in the punchbowl, but last year was the third time in the last four seasons that Giancarlo Stanton missed 39 games or more. He's coming dangerously close to becoming an injury liability. Still, as long as he's on the field, he's going to mash. Same with Jose Fernandez on the mound. This could be another team that benefits from being in a post-hype season. Hard to remember now, but Miami was a trendy pick to make the playoffs last year. Christian Yelich had flashes last year, but never really put it together after a promising 2014, and Marcel Ozuna was the newest member of the witness protection program. They were good on defense, though, which is just about the only area they were above average. This team has some pieces, but just not a full deck.

Atlanta Braves- Hey remember Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz? Great times. Listen, I know a lot more random athletes than just about anyone, and when I've only heard of about five players on the roster, that's a bad thing. This team is in full rebuild mode, and are in for a rude awakening when people still don't show up to their new stadium in a few years. At least they got Dansby Swanson.

Philadelphia Phillies- This team is still gonna suck, but it won't be as depressing as previous years. They've got a lot of good, young, athletic players that should get a lot of playing time. They might even get out of the bottom five of like, at least one major team stat! Trust the process! Side note, Citizen's Bank Park is one of my favorite stadiums in the league. I love small parks, and it doesn't get smaller or prettier than Philadelphia. I've been a couple times, and I even thought the food was good. Then again, I'll pretty much eat anything that doesn't move the Geiger Counter and be happy about it, so it might just be average.

Division Outlook: This is probably the most top-heavy division in the majors. A timeline exists where the Nationals win the division this year, but I don't think we're living in it. The Mets are just too strong. Now, the Mets are still the Mets, so a collapse is always possible, but with their pitching I don't see it. The Nats could easily hang around the Wild Card chase, but I'm not sure if they'll be able to break through.

Winner: Mets


NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals- In St. Louis, they're better than you, and they know it. Seriously, is anyone classier than the Cardinals or their fans? Just ask anyone who left the team or crossed them on Twitter! There's no better indicator of class than constantly reminding other people how classy you are, right Ladanian Tomlinson? Cardinals fans should thank their lucky stars for Royals fans and Seahawks fans, because they keep Cardinals fans from being far and away the most annoying people on the planet. On the field, once again this team is throwing out a lineup of relative no names. But, once again, don't confuse lack of star power with lack of talent. This team will be there at the end, as usual. However, the NL is really good this year. Realistically, they'll need 95 or more wins to make the playoffs. Can they do it? Yes, they can do it. Will they? I'm not totally convinced. At some point, the black magic has to run out. They aren't a great hitting team, and are out of the top 10 defensively. That can catch up to you eventually. Now, count the Cardinals out at your own risk, but I don't think they're as big of a lock to make the playoffs as they usually are.

Chicago Cubs- How can the Cubs screw this up? The only thing that can stop this group of players from achieving greatness is their own franchise's powerful curse. The amount of young talent here is staggering. This team hit the fourth most home runs in the NL last year, and I can't imagine that ranking not going up this season. Bryant, Schwarber, and Rizzo all have 40 home run power. This team does strike out a lot (like, A LOT), but player progression should lower some of the k rates in the middle of the lineup. This is a really good defensive team (Kyle Schwarber's defensive struggles were greatly exaggerated) that will only get better with the addition of Jason Heyward. Jake Arrieta will still be an ace, spearheading a great staff that lead the majors in strikeouts and fielding independent pitching. They're my bet to have the best record in the league this season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them playing deep into October. Unless, of course, Cubs things happen.

Pittsburgh Pirates- Another complete team from the NL Central. This team finished second in the majors in ERA, ERA+, and FIP (they didn't even lead their own division in any of those). And while they had a surprisingly bad defense (23rd out of 30 teams), they had the best offense of the Central Powers (just created that nickname don't steal it). Even with these three great teams, I think this division only gets two playoff teams (it's an even numbered year, after all). I'm obviously high on the Cubs, and I think the Pirates will be the other team. I think they'll be doomed to yet another wild card game, though, a fate they cannot seem to avoid, no matter how good their team is. Hopefully for them Gerrit Cole won't puke all over himself this time.

Cincinnati Reds- Outside Joey Votto being one of the most under appreciated hitters ever, there's just not much to be excited about with this team. They were bottom-10 in the majors in hitting, pitching, and defense. They just kind of stink at everything. Maybe Jesse Winkler will debut and make the team somewhat interesting, but probably not. Not even the Most Interesting Man in the World could make the Reds interesting this season.

Milwaukee Brewers- Another boring, shitty team at the bottom of the NL Central. This team sucks and won't do anything this year. However, now that Craig Counsel has had time to really get settled in as manager, hopefully he will have converted some players to his no batting gloves, crazy stance approach. He legitimately had a top-5 most ridiculous stance of all time. I'm sure he'll be disappointed when he finds out Ryan Braun lied about practicing his stance all offseason (I'm pretty sure Ryan Braun would lie if you asked him what he ate for breakfast this morning), maybe the rest of the team will use it. It can't possibly hurt their on-field performance.

Division Outlook: The top of this division is so good. The Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates could all win the World Series this season. But, unlike last year, the Senior Circuit consists of more than the NL Central. The NL West will challenge for the second wild card spot, and I believe one of them will grab it (stay tuned to find out who!). Sorry Cardinals fans, you're out. I'm sure you will handle this with grace and class and not call me every offensive thing in the book. Since you're all so classy, and all.

Winner- Cubs
Wild Card- Pirates

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers- The Dodgers won their third straight division title last year, mostly riding the dominance of Kershaw and Greinke. Their offense was weird, tying for the third highest team OPS+ in the majors, but finishing in the bottom half in runs scored. That won't happen often. Even though the front office changed the focus to pitching and defense, the defense was merely average, and, to replace  Greinke (who probably should have won the Cy Young) they brought in... Scott Kazmir. Pretty underwhelming considering the deep pockets this team has shown in the past. This is still a good team, though. Kershaw will dominate, Corey Seager is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year, and I'm a believer in a Yasiel Puig bounce back season. If Joc Pederson wasn't cursed by the Home Run Derby, he could approach 35-40 home runs if he doesn't collapse like he did last year. There's no reason this team can't make the playoffs again this year. They're also far from a lock in my mind. I think they'll have to fight until the end of the season to make the playoffs, and it will likely come down to the final week. Will they prevail? I'm not convinced. I think their playoff streak ends this season.

San Francisco Giants- Wait, what year is it? 2016? That's all I need to know. Aside from the obvious magic the Giants have working for them, there are legitimate reasons to believe in this San Fran team. Bumgarner is still a horse, and, even though neither Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija were great last season, they're still welcome additions to an already pretty good pitching staff. I'm a big Matt Cain fan, and I think he'll have a good year, but, if he doesn't, Chris Heston is a good fifth starter. This was a good offense last season, and they didn't lose anyone consequential. As long as they have Buster Posey, I'll always believe in the Giants. This year is no different. I think they'll win the division, and I'm not going to be the one to be caught off guard when this team wins another World Series.

Arizona Diamondbacks- I've gone back and forth on the Diamondbacks a million times. Weird new jerseys. Huge name acquisitions. We've seen the win-now spending spree from random teams before, and it literally never works. But what if the team was already pretty good beforehand? The Dbacks were great on defense last season, finishing 3rd in UZR, and they have one of the most dynamic one-two punches in the majors in Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. The core of this lineup is young and getting better. The pitching wasn't great, but that's why you bring in Greinke and Shelby Miller. I don't know, this could burn me, but I actually believe in this team. I think that they have enough talent to make the playoffs, and if they play with consistency, I think they will. This could be 2001 all over again.

Colorado Rockies- For whatever reason, I've always loved the Rockies. I love their uniforms (purple is my favorite color), I love Coors Field, and I love home runs. I'll always root for them and they're my go-to team to start a franchise with in MLB The Show. Now, this team is terrible. The pitching is an abomination, the defense stinks, and, though the offense is exciting, most of it is a product of the thin air. Nolan Arenado will put up massive numbers again, as will Carlos Gonzalez, and the team will continue to be great to watch late at light when there's nothing on. Rockies home games in 2016 will be the safest bet if you're looking for high scoring games, though it will be the visiting teams doing most of the scoring.

San Diego Padres- The most interesting thing about the Padres is just how long they've been boring. Seriously, a team of literal dead bodies would move the needle more than this team. I know I said I didn't do much research while also doing a small amount of research, well for the Padres I literally did none. For some reason I subjected my eyes to a few Padres games when I needed some sleep, and I'd be surprised if any National League team had a worse defense. The Padres defense being awful is the only thing I remember about them. Their jerseys are sartorial Ambien. Their offense is bad. Their pitching couldn't be more average. This team stinks and will do nothing. That's my safest proclamation of this whole thing.


Division Outlook: This is the most interesting division in the NL for me. Any combination of the Giants, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks winning the division and second wild card spot would make sense. No division had as many high profile moves (or, in the Dodgers case, lack of moves), and I'm very curious to see how they pan out. I'm not messing with the Giants mojo. And I just like the Diamondbacks more than the Dodgers. I never said this was 100% scientific.

Winner- Giants
Wild Card- Diamondbacks

SUPER SPECIAL BONUS PREDICTION
I bet you didn't see this coming. I've got another prediction to round out a bunch of other perfect predictions. I'm sure you can guess, but this is my World Series pick:

GIANTS over Red Sox

Never let anyone say I'm not subjective.