AFC Championship- NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3) at Denver Broncos
My beloved Patriots are in yet another AFC Championship Game, this time in a rematch of their week 12 overtime loss at Denver. The Pats have Edelman, Amendola, Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower, and Rob Gronkowski healthy for this game, all five of which missed either parts or the entirety of the first game. Denver gets DeMarcus Ware, T.J. Ward, Sylvester Williams, Louis Vasquez, and, of course, Peyton Manning back. In other words, the first game isn't a great indicator of what will happen this game. One thing we know will continue is that both offenses won't exactly light it up. The 30-24 final belies the struggle both teams had to score for most of the game, particularly the Broncos, who really only got anything going after a muffed punt. The Broncos defense is dominant and will keep them in the game. Still, no matter how many times the advertise they're going to cheap shot the hell out of Gronk, they still can't stop him. That, along with Edelman probably being guarded by a possibly banged-up Chris Harris, are the Pats only advantages on offense. They won't be able to run or throw deep. The Broncos blitz a ton, and, as everyone at Analysts-R-Us will tell you, Brady hates getting hit and isn't as good under pressure (which is somehow different than every other qb in the league). One thing that could go New England's way in that regard is that Von Miller pretty much never shows up in big games. Like, Lebron in the 2011 Finals level bad. He does nothing when it matters, but it's okay because his glasses still take up half his face. He's so cool.
On the other side of the ball, you don't need me to tell you Denver's offense is hot garbage. Or that Peyton stinks. Or that Tom Brady has more passing touchdowns in Denver this season (3) than Peyton (1). Their running game is okay, but not good enough to win the game by itself. And the coaching matchup, I mean... come on. The defense is the only reason the Broncos won more than 8 games this season.
Bottom line, it's gonna take a perfect game from the Broncos defense for them to win. And, honestly, that's a fairly realistic possibility. But just don't see it happening. Pats go back to the Super Bowl.
Score prediction: 21-17 Patriots
NFC Championship Game: ARIZONA CARDINALS at Carolina Panthers (-3)
I expect this game to be much more exciting. Both offenses create big plays at will, and both defenses are stout and create turnovers. These two are really evenly matched. I think if they were to play 100 times, Carolina would probably win 52 times. But, this weekend will not be one of them.
To me, this game will come down to the advantage the Cardinals will have on the outside. The Panthers secondary is depleted to put it lightly. They're going to be starting two corners that weren't on the roster before mid-December. On the flip side, Arizona's receiving trio of Fitzgerald-Brown-Floyd all finished top 10 in receiver DVOA, a stat that says how much value a player adds on any given play adjusted for the strength of schedule. So, yeah, that's a big deal. Josh Norman can cover one of those three, but not all. Last week, the Panthers blitzed like crazy, which is part of the reason the Seahawks were able to get back into it. Some of the blitzes did work, but the majority of the big plays came from Carolina's excellent interior defensive line completely destroying Seattle's offensive line. If I'm the Panthers, I trust that my defensive line can get enough pressure on its own, and give my corners as much extra help over the top as possible. But that's what people would have said going into last week's game as well. Carson Palmer sucked last week, and I expect him to have at least one turnover this game. I also expect him to have at least three touchdowns.
But the Panthers offense is in great shape, as well. The Panthers dominated the red zone this season, and guess where the Cardinals defense struggled? The red zone. The Panthers seem to convert every short yardage run. Of course, it helps when you have Ivan Drago at quarterback. The Cardinals, just like on offense, are super aggressive on d. They blitz almost every play. The only problem is they aren't really that good at it, especially on third down, where they give up a lot more long conversions than you would expect from such a good defense. And, of course, Cam gets better against the blitz (I guess he's the mythical quarterback that likes getting hit and put under pressure. I thought it was Peyton Manning). Ted Ginn will probably get open deep at some point. A Ted Ginn deep pass is entertaining for weird reasons, since he's always super wide open but there's an 80% he drops it. Cardinals are good against the run, but so was Seattle and they got gashed in the first half last week. With all that said, I still think the Cardinals defense, even without Tyrann Mathieu, can make the one big play they need. I really think this comes down to the last drive. I just hope I have better luck than last week. Cardinals go to the Bay Area.
Score prediction: 34-28 Cardinals
Looking like a 2-0 week. It's just so easy! Follow my foolproof picks, and you'll be making money in no time. I guarantee it'll work or your money back! (not really) As long as you don't make your bets with Yu Darvish's brother, that is.
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