Divisional Round Picks

I like to fancy myself a sports savant of sorts. The majority of my memory has been devoted to mostly useless sports stats and factoids, and, in my diluted mind, has lead me to have more overall sports knowledge than anyone who isn't paid to know about sports. I'm too humble, I know.

Naturally, as I get older, the more I want to test my knowledge and gain from my knowledge. Of course, there was only one logical route: gambling! I started betting games legitimately about two years ago, and while my baseball and basketball results have been okay, my football results have been pretty mixed horrible. Except for the playoffs, which, the last two seasons, I actually did pretty well.

Last week, including the NCAA Championship game, I went an impressive 4-1 against the spread (I'll let you guess which team cost me. Hint: some places are afraid to say their name). What's even more impressive is that since there's no record of this, you can't refute my record! I'm a genius.

Let's take a look at this weekend's batch of games, the always entertaining divisional round. Picks in all caps:


Kansas City Chiefs vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-4.5)

The first game of the weekend pits my beloved Patriots against the red-hot Chiefs. There's no getting around it, this is a tough matchup for the Pats. The Chiefs pass defense, spearheaded by Tamba Hali and Justin Houston (a game-time decision), is tough to crack. The pass rush finished sixth in the league in terms of highest percentage of plays they got significant pressure. The Chiefs secondary thrives against short, quick passes, ranking number one in the league in opposing QBR (a flawed statistic, but useful to make quick, blind judgements) against passes traveling under 15 yards. Guess what the Pats do a lot? Yeah. And now Rob Gronkowski spent the night in the hospital getting knee injections. Add in that the Pats haven't really been that good ATS this season (7-6-3), and it's not looking good for the good guys. Then why the pick? Because the Chiefs offense isn't very good. Jeremy Maclin is another game-time decision, and if he can't go, the Chiefs become very one-dimensional. Jamie Collins and Devin McCourty can take away Travis Kelce, leaving Alex Smith with no explosive passing threats. The Chiefs running game is very good, ranked third in the league in efficiency, but the Patriots were top ten in efficiency against the run, as well. This will be a tight, low scoring slugfest, and, despite recent results, I think the Pats come out on top. I think a touchdown decides it.

SCORE: 20-14 Patriots

Green Bay Packers vs. ARIZONA CARDINALS (-7)

While we in the general public have a tendency to overreact to single game results, the Cardinals demolition of the Packers in week 16 is sticking in my mind (Arizona's game against Seattle is not) I just don't see anything changing. Jordy Nelson isn't magically back. The offensive line isn't magically better. The Packers finished as only the 21st most efficient offense, going against a top 7 defense. The Cardinals were 4th best on offense, while Green Bay was 14th on defense. That's all the evidence I need.

SCORE: 35-17 Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks vs. CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3)

The line I have is 3, but I've seen it as low as 1.5. Either way, it's a pick 'em game. The big matchup in this game, just like the first game, will be Greg Olsen vs. the Legion of Boom. It's become pretty well known at this point, but Seattle struggles against tight ends. Kam Chancellor, despite getting the entirety of the credit for any early season wins, is kind of bad at covering people. Turns out there's more to playing safety than jacking people up. As someone who watched Brandon Merriweather for way too long, I'm surprised by this, too. Greg Olsen ate Seattle's lunch in week 6, and while it would be foolish to expect Pete Carroll to just let that happen again, Seattle adjusting their defense to cover up Olsen could theoretically open up other parts of the defense. Then again, Seattle was the league's best run defense and completely stifled Adrian Peterson last week, so relying purely on Ted Ginn might not be the best strategy. At some point, Seattle's playoff luck has to run out, right? I'm banking on it happening this week.

Either that, or Seattle's defensive line completely takes over the game and Russell Wilson continues his late season dominance and the Seahawks pull yet another win out of their ass.

SCORE: 27-21 Panthers

PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. Denver Broncos (-7)

Everything points to a Denver win. The game is in Denver. No Antonio Brown. Big Ben couldn't throw more than five yards during the last drive against the Bengals. The Broncos had the most dominant pass defense in the league, by a mile (get it? lololol). Then why take the Steelers? Because the Broncos offense is one of the worst I've ever seen. During the last two weeks while everyone at ESPN was fighting over themselves to say they believed Peyton didn't cheat (but Brady totally did, because, you know he's on the Pats) and gushing over Peyton's effect on the run game, it was kind of lost that he was, you know, the WORST STARTING QB IN THE LEAGUE! Guy stinks. I know it's a lot to ask for journalistic integrity, especially from a network that willingly employs such unbiased and intelligent personalities like Bill Polian, Tom Jackson, Cris Carter, Chris Mortensen, Roger Goodell, and Mark Brunell, but come on. At least mention that he's been garbage and has a long history of gagging against inferior teams. Neither team will be able to do anything offensively, which is perfect for a lesser team to stay in it. I still think Denver wins, but no way do they win by seven. The over under for this game is 39. If it reaches that, I'll eat my shoes.

SCORE: 14-10 Broncos

There you have it. Lock it down, take it to the bank. Can't see these picks going any worse than 4-0.